Future Scenarios in Public Security

Abstract

1. The understanding of future scenario generations in public security through public security intelligence is usually very incipient. Therefore, the present work aims to understand this theme in order to subsidize public policies so that the community has more security in its daily life. Bibliographic and exploratory research was used to achieve the maximum of what is sought within the theme of strategic intelligence. In this way, prospective methods developed not only in Brazil but also in the United States and France were explored. A fundamental tool of this work is strategic planning, which serves as an instrument that enables the analysis of the environment in which the organization is situated, the creation of goals, strategies, actions, that is, premises that will serve as the foundation for the development of patrol policing. Strategic-level intelligence aims to formulate alerts and determine threats in the short, medium, and long term to set priorities and adapt to the location or police institution to properly face criminal threats that arise, guiding planning and policies regarding public security operations. On the other hand, the decision-making process in organizations is a broad topic, with numerous publications in the literature. There are decision-making models, which foresee different phases for the decision-making process, so that decision-makers can make the most appropriate choice for the organization. Scenario prospecting is a scientific activity to anticipate possible futures, understanding the dynamics and logic of reality through tools such as analytical, quantitative, qualitative, statistical methods, and others. Thus, the main methods were listed, such as: brainstorming, morphological analysis, Delphi, cross-impact analysis, Macbeth, Michel Godet, and Global Business Network. Therefore, it was possible to better understand the steps to build future scenarios in public security and provide more security for society.